Repeal Support Slipping - New Poll

29.03.2018

Support for repeal of the 8th Amendment is declining according to the latest opinion poll. The poll, conducted by RedC Research for the Sunday Business Post, showed a swing to the retain side, with the No vote increasing by 6 points since January.

While the repeal side continues to hold a lead in the headline figures, the polls details will make worrying reading for the repeal campaign. Historically the yes side in any referendum tends to shrink as voting day gets closer.  In many cases this has been quite a severe swing, with examples like the Oireachtas Enquiries referendum moving from clear support among the public in polls some time before the election, but eventually the referendum being lost as undecided voters and wavering Yes voters, move to oppose change.

The latest poll already shows signs of this trend.  Back in January 60 per cent of all adults supported Repeal, now two months later that has fallen back to 56 per cent, as those less certain voters listen to the arguments from both sides.  But even more important is the gains for the No side, rising from 20 per cent in January to 26 per cent in March.

This shows that some Yes voters have moved to No, and that a significant number of previously undecided voters are now in the retain camp.

The poll also shows that opposition to the government’s plan for abortion on demand up to 12 weeks has grown to 33 per cent, also up 6 per cent since January.

Sunday Business Post. March 25. RedC. March 26.